La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Sevilla 1 – 3 Barcelona
The outcome rated most likely (a Barcelona win, 66%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Sevilla
VS
Barcelona
Sevilla win
14%
Draw
20%
Barcelona win
66%
Expected goals
1.3 – 2.7
Expected shots
10 – 22
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 19:23 (UK time).