Coupe de France · Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 13:45 (UK time)
Saint-Pauloise
VS
La Tamponnaise
Saint-Pauloise win
56%
Draw
31%
La Tamponnaise win
13%
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.5
Expected shots
7 – 5
Match analysis
Saint-Pauloise comes out on top in most scenarios (56% win rate), but La Tamponnaise finds a way in 13% of simulations. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 51% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 08:56 (UK time).