Europa League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
Real Sociedad
VS
Lyon
Real Sociedad win
46%
Draw
25%
Lyon win
29%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.3
Expected shots
14 – 11
Match analysis
Real Sociedad holds a real edge (46% vs 29%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (26%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 00:04 (UK time).