Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Portugal
VS
Wales
Portugal win
48%
Draw
26%
Wales win
26%
Expected goals
2.1 – 1.6
Expected shots
14 – 18
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 08:54 (UK time).