Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (UK time)
Final score: Newcastle 2 – 1 Hull City
The model gave a Newcastle win only 28%. At 28%, an outcome happens about 28 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Newcastle
VS
Hull City
Newcastle win
28%
Draw
40%
Hull City win
32%
Expected goals
0.8 – 0.9
Expected shots
13 – 9
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 14:23 (UK time).