Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Final score: Napoli 4 – 3 Bodo/Glimt
The model gave a Napoli win only 24%. At 24%, an outcome happens about 24 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Napoli
VS
Bodo/Glimt
Napoli win
24%
Draw
26%
Bodo/Glimt win
50%
Expected goals
1.1 – 1.7
Expected shots
11 – 15
Match analysis
Bodo/Glimt comes out on top in most scenarios (50% win rate), but Napoli finds a way in 24% of simulations.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 October at 19:30 (UK time).