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Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Liverpool 4 – 3 Villarreal

The outcome rated most likely (a Liverpool win, 49%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Liverpool
VS
Villarreal
Liverpool win
49%
Draw
23%
Villarreal win
28%
Expected goals
2.0 – 1.5
Expected shots
20 – 11

Match analysis

Liverpool holds a real edge (49% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (23%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 October at 19:30 (UK time).

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