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FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: FC Porto 0 – 1 PSV Eindhoven

The model gave a PSV Eindhoven win only 27%. At 27%, an outcome happens about 27 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

FC Porto
VS
PSV Eindhoven
FC Porto win
46%
Draw
27%
PSV Eindhoven win
27%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.2
Expected shots
15 – 10

Match analysis

FC Porto holds a real edge (46% vs 28%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (27%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 October at 19:30 (UK time).

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