Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
Final score: Fenerbahçe 2 – 2 Slavia Praha
The model gave a draw only 26%. At 26%, an outcome happens about 26 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Fenerbahçe
VS
Slavia Praha
Fenerbahçe win
43%
Draw
26%
Slavia Praha win
31%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.3
Expected shots
11 – 18
Match analysis
Fenerbahçe holds a real edge (43% vs 31%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (26%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 20 October at 17:03 (UK time).