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Monza vs Cagliari prediction

Serie A · Monday, 19 October 2026 at 17:30 (UK time)

Final score: Monza 4 – 0 Cagliari

The outcome rated most likely (a Monza win, 46%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Monza
VS
Cagliari
Monza win
46%
Draw
27%
Cagliari win
27%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.2
Expected shots
16 – 9

Match analysis

Monza holds a real edge (46% vs 27%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (27%) stays a live option.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 October at 16:55 (UK time).

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