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Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction

Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Manchester City
VS
Paris Saint Germain
Manchester City win
69%
Draw
20%
Paris Saint Germain win
11%
Expected goals
2.6 – 1.1
Expected shots
14 – 15

Match analysis

Manchester City dominates this matchup: 69% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 11% for Paris Saint Germain. Manchester City frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 62% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 7 October at 07:49 (UK time).

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