Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Final score: Le Mans 2 – 1 Lorient
The outcome rated most likely (a Le Mans win, 40%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.
Le Mans
VS
Lorient
Le Mans win
40%
Draw
29%
Lorient win
31%
Expected goals
1.7 – 1.5
Expected shots
11 – 12
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 18:53 (UK time).