Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (UK time)
Bulgaria
VS
Luxembourg
Bulgaria win
27%
Draw
37%
Luxembourg win
36%
Expected goals
0.9 – 1.0
Expected shots
4 – 12
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 11:25 (UK time).