Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (UK time)
Final score: Brighton 3 – 0 Arsenal
The model gave a Brighton win only 35%. At 35%, an outcome happens about 35 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Brighton
VS
Arsenal
Brighton win
35%
Draw
29%
Arsenal win
36%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.6
Expected shots
19 – 16
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 19 September at 14:23 (UK time).