Europa League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Benfica
VS
Lech Poznan
Benfica win
79%
Draw
13%
Lech Poznan win
8%
Expected goals
3.2 – 1.0
Expected shots
22 – 8
Match analysis
Benfica dominates this matchup: 79% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 8% for Lech Poznan. Benfica frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 62% of runs).
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 00:05 (UK time).