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Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction

Champions League · Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Final score: Bayern München 2 – 2 Arsenal

The model gave a draw only 16%. At 16%, an outcome happens about 16 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

Bayern München
VS
Arsenal
Bayern München win
72%
Draw
16%
Arsenal win
12%
Expected goals
2.8 – 1.1
Expected shots
17 – 8

Match analysis

Bayern München dominates this matchup: 72% of the 50,000 simulations end in their win, against just 12% for Arsenal. Bayern München frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 56% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 October at 19:11 (UK time).

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