The model gave a draw only 31%. At 31%, an outcome happens about 31 times in 100: that is what a probability means.
Parma
UdineseGenuinely open contest: Parma and Udinese finish within a few points of each other (31% vs 38%), with the draw at 31%. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 47% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 October at 16:33 (UK time).
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