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AC Milan vs Bologna prediction

Serie A · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 17:30 (UK time)

Final score: AC Milan 2 – 4 Bologna

The model gave a Bologna win only 16%. At 16%, an outcome happens about 16 times in 100: that is what a probability means.

AC Milan
VS
Bologna
AC Milan win
58%
Draw
26%
Bologna win
16%
Expected goals
1.7 – 0.8
Expected shots
16 – 9

Match analysis

AC Milan comes out on top in most scenarios (59% win rate), but Bologna finds a way in 16% of simulations. AC Milan frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 41% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 October at 16:33 (UK time).

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