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Monza vs Napoli prediction

Serie A · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Final score: Monza 1 – 4 Napoli

The outcome rated most likely (a Napoli win, 53%) happened. One match proves nothing: a model is judged over hundreds.

Monza
VS
Napoli
Monza win
23%
Draw
24%
Napoli win
53%
Expected goals
1.3 – 2.0
Expected shots
8 – 25

Match analysis

Napoli comes out on top in most scenarios (53% win rate), but Monza finds a way in 23% of simulations. Napoli frequently takes control before the break (leading at half-time in 41% of runs).

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 28 October at 19:03 (UK time).

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