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Lille vs Lens prediction

Ligue 1 · Friday, 30 October 2026 at 20:05 (UK time)

Lille
VS
Lens
Lille win
26%
Draw
32%
Lens win
42%
Expected goals
0.9 – 1.2
Expected shots
7 – 23

Match analysis

Lens holds a real edge (42% vs 26%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 50% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 05:04 (UK time).

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