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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction

Champions League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)

Atletico Madrid
VS
Bayern München
Atletico Madrid win
39%
Draw
24%
Bayern München win
37%
Expected goals
1.8 – 1.7
Expected shots
9 – 20

Match analysis

Genuinely open contest: Atletico Madrid and Bayern München finish within a few points of each other (40% vs 37%), with the draw at 24%.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 04:03 (UK time).

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