Champions League · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 at 17:45 (UK time)
AEK Athens FC
VS
Real Madrid
AEK Athens FC win
39%
Draw
21%
Real Madrid win
40%
Expected goals
2.2 – 2.2
Expected shots
9 – 20
Match analysis
Genuinely open contest: AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid finish within a few points of each other (39% vs 40%), with the draw at 21%.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 02:03 (UK time).