Nations League · Saturday, 14 November 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Sweden
VS
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sweden win
60%
Draw
26%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
14%
Expected goals
1.6 – 0.6
Expected shots
13 – 8
Match analysis
Sweden comes out on top in most scenarios (60% win rate), but Bosnia & Herzegovina finds a way in 14% of simulations. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 45% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 09:25 (UK time).