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Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction

Nations League · Saturday, 14 November 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)

Northern Ireland
VS
Ukraine
Northern Ireland win
50%
Draw
33%
Ukraine win
17%
Expected goals
1.2 – 0.6
Expected shots
11 – 10

Match analysis

Northern Ireland holds a real edge (50% vs 17%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (33%) stays a live option. The first half is often locked (draw at the break in 53% of runs) before the game opens up after the restart.

How these numbers are calculated

The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 8 November at 09:25 (UK time).

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