Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (UK time)
Lithuania
VS
Azerbaijan
Lithuania win
44%
Draw
33%
Azerbaijan win
23%
Expected goals
1.3 – 0.9
Expected shots
11 – 4
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 21 September at 09:48 (UK time).