Premier League · Monday, 12 October 2026 at 20:00 (UK time)
Coventry
VS
Newcastle
Coventry win
21%
Draw
31%
Newcastle win
48%
Expected goals
1.0 – 1.6
Expected shots
14 – 14
Match analysis
Newcastle holds a real edge (49% vs 21%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (31%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 5 October at 01:18 (UK time).