Serie A · Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 19:45 (UK time)
Fiorentina
VS
Atalanta
Fiorentina win
32%
Draw
24%
Atalanta win
44%
Expected goals
1.6 – 1.8
Expected shots
14 – 18
Match analysis
Atalanta holds a real edge (44% vs 32%), yet no outcome reaches 50%: the draw (24%) stays a live option.
How these numbers are calculated
The match is simulated 50,000 times from both teams' recent statistics (goals, shots, form, absences, line-ups when announced). Each percentage is the share of simulations in which the outcome happens: these are probabilities, not certainties. Last updated 29 October at 00:03 (UK time).